How the IBS Strategy Made $45K in 2024 — Even in a Down Market!

Introduction to Internal Bar Strength (IBS)

Have you ever wondered if a simple trading rule could generate consistent profits, even in wild markets?

Enter the Internal Bar Strength (IBS) strategy—a hidden gem in the world of mean reversion trading. It's easy to use, fast in execution, and shockingly effective, especially when markets get shaky. IBS works like buying the dip after a panic.

In this post, we’ll break down exactly how IBS works, why it’s powerful during volatile times, and how a single Nasdaq futures strategy made over $45,000 with 100% win rate in 2024. We'll also look at results on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures for comparison.

Let’s dive in!

Understanding the IBS Indicator

What is Internal Bar Strength (IBS)?

IBS is a simple indicator that tells us where the market closed within its daily range. Here’s the formula:

IBS = (Close - Low) / (High - Low)

The result is always between 0 and 1:

• 0 means the market closed at the day's low.

• 1 means it closed at the day's high.

• Below 0.25? That means it closed in the bottom 25% of the day’s range—often a sign of exhaustion.

A chart showing how the Internal Bar Strength (IBS) indicator measures the closing position within the daily price range.

Why IBS Works in Mean Reversion Strategies

Most traders chase breakouts. However mean reversion strategies, like IBS, do the opposite. They wait for signs that the market has overreacted—then jump in expecting a bounce.

When the IBS is low (especially below 0.25), it often means the market has sold off hard and fast. That's when we prepare to buy, expecting a short-term rebound.

📉 Curious how RSI fits into mean reversion on the S&P 500? Explore our RSI Deep Dive for powerful entry signals.

 Strategy Setup and Execution

Entry Criteria: Identifying Low IBS Values

We enter a long position when the IBS indicates we are in the lower bar range. That means the market likely panicked near the close—and could bounce the next day.

Exit Strategy: Quick Profits and Risk Management

This strategy doesn’t wait around:

• If the position is profitable by close: Exit on the next open.

• If not, Exit anyway after one bar.

No trailing stops, no profit targets, and no holding for long. The goal is to catch short-term reversals and get out.

🧠 "This method reduces exposure while taking advantage of quick rebounds. Positions last just one to two days." - Ali Casey

Performance Analysis

Market: Nasdaq 100 mini futures

Data: 2007-2025 daily bars

Entry: if IBS < Level, then buy the next bar at open.

Exit 1: if profitable, then exit the next bar at open.

Exit 2: if holding one bar, then exit next bar at open.

A table showing backtest results of IBS strategy performance at different IBS thresholds on Nasdaq futures.

Backtesting Results on Nasdaq Futures

In 2024 alone:

• 14 trades

• 100% win rate

• Average profit: $3,240 per trade

• Total profit: $45,000 (single Nasdaq contract)

• Over the whole period the strategy produced +6 Return/DD

Even in 2025’s downtrend, the strategy kept winning:

• 4 trades so far

• 3 winners, 1 loss

• Profit: $3,305 year-to-date

“It’s not about predicting. It’s about preparing. IBS gives you that edge.” — Ali Casey

Real-World Applications

Case Study: Trading in 2024–2025 Volatile Markets

In early 2025, despite a 22% drop in the Nasdaq, the strategy held up:

• Fast exits limit losses.

• High win rate (75% in 2025 so far).

• Nearly $200,000 in historical profits with about 7x return-to-drawdown ratio.

• Strategy performed well in multiple market regimes, including subprime bubble, covid crises, flash crash, interest hike, etc., on all US major indexes.

Performance chart showing $45,000 in profit with a 100% win rate from the IBS strategy in 2024 for Nasdaq 100 futures.

Comparative Analysis: S&P 500, Dow Jones Futures and Russell 2000

When applied to other indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures, the IBS pattern still works—but with slight variations:

Comparison table or chart of IBS strategy applied to S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000 futures.

Adapting the Strategy to Different Market Conditions

This strategy works in all market conditions, but we can improve the Strategy by incorporating strategy filters

While IBS is great on its own, pairing it with a strategy filter helps the strategy by avoiding bad trades. Below are the filters I used:

🔸 ADX (Average Directional Index)

Use Case: Apply ADX when it's above a set threshold (e.g., 20 or 25) to confirm that the market is trending.
Why It Helps: IBS works best in mean reversion setups, so contrary to normal conventions, trending market improves accuracy.

🔸 Bollinger Bands Width

Use Case: Use the Bollinger Band Width when it's expanding, indicating rising volatility.
Why It Helps: Expanding bands signal market overextension—ideal for spotting quick reversals using IBS.

🔸 ATR (Average True Range)

Use Case: Add ATR as a filter when volatility is expanding (rising ATR values).
Why It Helps: Higher volatility improves the risk-reward potential of mean reversion setups.

🔸 Volume

Use Case: Filter trades when volume is shrinking, suggesting potential exhaustion in the move.
Why It Helps: Lower volume into a selloff often precedes a bounce, which aligns well with IBS signals.

🔍 Want to know when to trade and when to stay on the sidelines? Check out Mastering Market Regimes for tips on navigating different market conditions.

Performance table displaying different filters (e.g., ADX, ATR, Bollinger Bands) enhancing the IBS strategy.

Not only that but combining different strategy filters in a portfolio yield low correlations even when using the same instrument, timeframe, and strategy rules.

Correlation matrix heatmap of various strategy filters showing low correlation across combinations.

🚀 Want to test this strategy for yourself? Reply to this email and I will send you the code to test for yourself.

Key Takeaways

• IBS is a simple but powerful tool for mean reversion.

• Works very well in all market regimes.

• The strategy is designed to reduce risk with fast exits.

• It’s adaptable across indices and timeframes.

📌 FAQs

What is Internal Bar Strength in trading?

Internal Bar Strength (IBS) measures where the day’s close falls within the range from low to high. It’s used to find exhaustion setups.

Why is IBS useful in mean reversion strategies?

A low IBS suggests panic selling. This can lead to a short-term rebound, perfect for mean reversion entries.

What’s the ideal IBS threshold for entry?

Usually, IBS < 0.25 is used for long setups. That means the close is in the bottom 25% of the range.

How long do trades last with this strategy?

Typically just 1–2 days. If profitable, you exit the next day on open. If not, exit after one bar.

Does this strategy work on other indices?

Yes! It’s been tested on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures. With some filters, it works well across markets.

Can I use this strategy without code?

Yes, you can manually screen for IBS < 0.25 on daily charts, but using code helps automate entries and exits.