Research

The Overfit archive

Every issue of Overfit points here. Research notes and long-form breakdowns: backtesting, portfolio construction, market structure, and the mechanics behind systematic trading.

#140

Can AI Build a Profitable Trading Strategy? I Backtested 5 LLM-Generated Rules on SPY to Find Out

Aug 22, 2026 · 9 min read

Two experiments on SPY: a 2,304-variant optimizer sweep standing in for what AI does when it hunts for "the best strategy," and 5 AI-generated rules implemented verbatim. The optimizer's top-25 risk-adjusted score collapsed 85% out-of-sample, and 0 of 2,068 eligible strategies beat buy-and-hold.

#139

Coin Flip Trading: What Randomness Tells Us About Market Bias

Oct 11, 2025 · 5 min read

Coin flip backtests show hidden market tendencies in ES, NG, and AD.

#138

Dollar Cost Averaging vs Moving Averages: Why Risk Management Wins Every Time

Aug 17, 2025 · 5 min read

Dollar Cost Averaging leaves you exposed to big losses. Learn how moving averages and Tactical Asset Allocation deliver smoother returns and stronger downside protection.

#137

Keltner Channels vs Bollinger Bands: 116,640 Backtests (and the Third Band I Built)

Aug 2, 2025 · 10 min read

116,640 backtests put Bollinger Bands, Keltner Channels and Casey Bands through one identical harness: the band you pick is worth 0.52 on return-to-drawdown, the side you trade is worth 90.4 points — and paying 0.05% a side drops Bollinger below buy-and-hold while the other two hold.

#136

Larry Connors R3 Strategy — Rebuilt for Index Futures (With a Smarter Filter)

Jul 26, 2025 · 4 min read

Larry Connors’ R3 strategy still works, if you update it. Discover how volatility filters and index futures give more trades and a better edge.

#134

Same Breakout Strategy, Different Results: Nasdaq vs. SP500 vs. Dow

Jun 20, 2025 · 3 min read

Compare how the same breakout strategy performs on Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow. The results may surprise you.

#133

📚 How to Build Profitable Strategies with the CCI Indicator

Jun 13, 2025 · 4 min read

Learn how to build short-side CCI strategies that actually work, tested on British Pound futures with real strategy results.

#132

Donchian Channel Strategy: I Backtested '40 In, 20 Out' 1,188 Ways on 33 Years of SPY

Jun 6, 2025 · 7 min read

The classic 40-in/20-out channel breakout, re-tested 1,188 ways on 33 years of SPY: long-only still made 105.5% frictionless — but the famous 20-day-low exit lost to a plain 20-bar time exit, shorts destroyed the account, and the edge has decayed every decade.

#131

StrategyQuant X Review: The No-Code Way to Build Trading Strategies

May 30, 2025 · 13 min read

I have run StrategyQuant X on an Ultimate licence since 2019, I am a paid affiliate, and my course is built around it — all stated up front. Here is the verified 2026 pricing ($1,290 Starter, $1,490 Professional, $2,900 Ultimate), the edition gate that decides the purchase, what Build 144 changed, and who should not buy it.

#130

Cumulative RSI Strategy: A Smarter Twist on RSI(2) for S&P 500

May 23, 2025 · 4 min read

Discover how Cumulative RSI improves over RSI(2) with smoother signals and real-world profits on the S&P 500

#129

Range Expansion Index (REI): The Indicator Traders Are Missing Out On

May 16, 2025 · 3 min read

Discover the Range Expansion Index (REI), a powerful RSI alternative proven to enhance trading signals on major indexes.

#128

The #1 Lesson Traders Learn Too Late: No Single System Will Save You

May 9, 2025 · 4 min read

A real trader's loss reveals the #1 lesson in algo trading: no system is bulletproof.

#127

Weekly Mean Reversion Strategy: 22,680 Backtests on Index Futures — and the Filter I Published Was Overfit

May 2, 2025 · 9 min read

Buy the week after a down week, sell that week's close. Retested 22,680 ways on ES and NQ futures plus four index ETFs: the plain rule survives on all six markets with a smaller drawdown than holding — and the volume filter I published in 2025 turns out to be the single best of 139 settings on one market and mediocre on the other five.

#126

Volume Oscillator: A Beginner’s Secret to Smarter Trades

Apr 25, 2025 · 5 min read

Discover how to use the Volume Oscillator to boost your trade accuracy. Perfect for beginner traders!

#125

What Is the VIX Index? A Beginner’s Guide to Market Volatility

Apr 18, 2025 · 4 min read

A simple explanation of the VIX index for beginner traders and investors.

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